This week (from April 30, 2012), the paper printing sector is behind the market. The sector's decline this week was 2.86%, behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index (down 0.03% this week) by 2.83 percentage points. We believe that the paper sector is currently at the bottom, both in terms of fundamentals and valuations. The valuation of the sector is expected to be fixed, but the current fundamentals do not support large-scale rebound. We expect that whether demand will pick up will determine the trend of raw materials and paper prices, and it also indicates whether the sector will see a fundamental improvement in investment opportunities in the first half of the year. We believe that the increase in volume will be greater than the impact of price increases on dealer replenishment.
International pulp prices were stable this week, European softwood pulp was basically flat, with a drop of 0.07%, while broadleaf pulp prices fell by 0.26%. In terms of coniferous pulp, the futures market is stuck in a stalemate. Arauco Silver Star's $700/ton offer is lacking. In terms of broad-leaf pulp, both Fibria and Suzano have announced that the May offer has risen to US$700/ton, and domestic buyers are more resistant. As of the end of March, the global inventory of hardwood pulp was 34 days. If the domestic buyers insisted on not taking orders at the current high price, can the hardwood pulp supplier always insist that there is no inventory pressure yet to be verified.
International waste paper prices have fallen this week. This week, the buyers and sellers of the US waste futures market continued to hold together, the trading atmosphere was still light, and the transaction price was stable. The daily scrap supplier's shipment speed slowed down and the market as a whole stabilized. The downstream bearish sentiment of European waste futures is aggravated, and some suppliers may have pressure on deposits and shipments. Paper prices are rising due to cost. In terms of double-adhesive paper, the market supply and demand situation is relatively stable, and paper mills and traders are all steadily quoting and stable shipments. In terms of white cardboard, the price of traders from all over the world was still relatively stable last week. At the end of the month, several white card factories such as Sun and Ningbo Zhonghua issued another May price increase notice. In terms of coated paper, the price of the paper mill was temporarily stabilized this week, and there is no clear plan for the price adjustment in May. Dealer transaction prices were also stable last week, but shipment speeds have shown signs of slowing down. In terms of container board, major paper mills have shouted, but the downstream acceptance is limited, mostly based on stability, and the overall domestic demand has not increased significantly.
We give the paper plate a “hold†investment rating, suggest “standardâ€, give the light industry sector “overweight†investment rating, and recommend down to “standardâ€. In terms of stock selection, we recommend: Yongxin, Tongxing Lixing, Xinghui Car Model, Sofia.
International pulp prices were stable this week, European softwood pulp was basically flat, with a drop of 0.07%, while broadleaf pulp prices fell by 0.26%. In terms of coniferous pulp, the futures market is stuck in a stalemate. Arauco Silver Star's $700/ton offer is lacking. In terms of broad-leaf pulp, both Fibria and Suzano have announced that the May offer has risen to US$700/ton, and domestic buyers are more resistant. As of the end of March, the global inventory of hardwood pulp was 34 days. If the domestic buyers insisted on not taking orders at the current high price, can the hardwood pulp supplier always insist that there is no inventory pressure yet to be verified.
International waste paper prices have fallen this week. This week, the buyers and sellers of the US waste futures market continued to hold together, the trading atmosphere was still light, and the transaction price was stable. The daily scrap supplier's shipment speed slowed down and the market as a whole stabilized. The downstream bearish sentiment of European waste futures is aggravated, and some suppliers may have pressure on deposits and shipments. Paper prices are rising due to cost. In terms of double-adhesive paper, the market supply and demand situation is relatively stable, and paper mills and traders are all steadily quoting and stable shipments. In terms of white cardboard, the price of traders from all over the world was still relatively stable last week. At the end of the month, several white card factories such as Sun and Ningbo Zhonghua issued another May price increase notice. In terms of coated paper, the price of the paper mill was temporarily stabilized this week, and there is no clear plan for the price adjustment in May. Dealer transaction prices were also stable last week, but shipment speeds have shown signs of slowing down. In terms of container board, major paper mills have shouted, but the downstream acceptance is limited, mostly based on stability, and the overall domestic demand has not increased significantly.
We give the paper plate a “hold†investment rating, suggest “standardâ€, give the light industry sector “overweight†investment rating, and recommend down to “standardâ€. In terms of stock selection, we recommend: Yongxin, Tongxing Lixing, Xinghui Car Model, Sofia.
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