Core Tip: At the beginning of September, coal prices increased, followed by a wind of price rises invaded the entire industry. Paper, steel, non-ferrous metals, plastics, and chemical products all rose to different degrees. Among them, the price of corrugated paper closely related to us was even more crazy. . The macro analysis of the reasons for the increase in corrugated paper price Since the beginning of September, coal prices have risen, and then a wind of price increase has affected the entire bulk industry. Paper, steel, non-ferrous metals, plastics, and chemical products have risen to varying degrees. Among them, corrugated papers closely related to us. The price is crazy. There are two reasons for the rapid increase in the price of this corrugated paper:
First, it is cost: It is believed that the devaluation of the renminbi led to an increase in import costs (currently most of the waste paper is imported). The increase in thermal coal prices has led to an increase in manufacturing costs. The state has stepped up efforts to strengthen environmental management and the capacity of small and medium-sized paper mills to shut down. The tension in the base paper has led to an increase in corrugated paper prices. Second, the demand side: At present, the recovery of the manufacturing industry (especially the rapid development of Internet e-commerce) has rapidly increased the demand for raw materials for packaging. The corrugated paper price will remain strong in the near future. Merchants need to be cautious in their operation. For the recent corrugated price trend, according to Xiaobian’s current comprehensive research, it is known:
Waste paper: Last week, the domestic market for yellow waste paper was steadily increased. Among them, the purchasing prices of paper mills in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong continued to increase. However, some of the packaging stations are bullish on the market outlook, and the attitude of reluctant sellers is getting stronger and there is an intention to sell goods. On the import side, the current import waste paper plate is stable. Starch: The recent domestic corn starch spot market lacks good support, prices have weakened compared to late November, manufacturers have more arrivals, inventories have risen, and the market has had the phenomenon of lower prices. Therefore, it is expected that the price of starch will remain weak. Attachment: Chart of corn starch from November 4 to December 09. Corn starch price is the factory price. Corrugated paper: Due to the continuous supply of base paper, paper corrugated in various places still has different levels of price increase. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for packaging companies. Therefore, the current market is strong and strong. Combined with the following figure, we can see that from last month to the present: The average price of corrugated paper in East China is 3243-3453 yuan/ton, and in November, the price adjustments were twice made at 200-300 yuan/time. The average price of corrugated paper in North China was 3008 yuan/ton, which rose by 300 yuan/ton in mid-November and rose by 700 yuan/ton in early December. The average price of corrugated paper in South China was 2875-3120 yuan/ton, and the price increase in early December was 600 yuan/ton compared with that in November. At present, corrugated paper shipments are in good condition throughout the country.
Attachment: Corrugated paper charts from November 4 to December 09, corrugated prices are the prices of paper products of scale, weight 110g-120g. At present, corrugated paper is under the influence of factors such as raw material cost pressure and tight supply. Some paper companies remain bullish on the market outlook. The prices of paper enterprises in each province and city are lower than the prices of local medium and small paper companies. There is a certain amount of room for increase for paper enterprises. In summary, it is expected that the recent price of corrugated paper will continue to consolidate upwards, but the margin has narrowed. Carton enterprises can operate cautiously according to their own orders. Future concerns: Fog and haze: At present, 42 cities in the country have started early warning responses in line with the early warning information as a result of haze and unification. Among them, the city of Langfang in Hebei Province and Linyi City in Shanxi Province have started red warnings. Waste paper: Recently, the price of waste paper has been oscillating and rising. Currently, the supply of goods in the market is in short supply. The rise of waste paper or the rise of a new round of base paper will require businesses to pay close attention to the price of waste paper. Environmental protection: The environmental protection tax levy is getting closer and closer. The "Environmental Protection Tax Law (Draft)" will be submitted to the Twelfth National People's Congress Standing Committee at its twenty-fifth meeting from December 19th to 25th for consideration. The current sewage charges remain the same, and the objects to be collected are air pollutants, water pollutants, solid waste, and noise.
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